Jackson Hole, off the record.
Teton County recovered from 2008 faster than any market on our list — back to its prior peak by 2016, four years ahead of Aspen — and it is the hardest of the six to measure. Wyoming requires no disclosure of sale prices, so roughly a third of the market never reaches the MLS. We read it through a series built to capture those off-market transfers: the single-family median reached a record $3.865M in 2025, up from $3.0M in 2021, alongside the county cycle and the demand behind it.
- Median, 2025
- $3.87M
- Price / sq ft, 2025
- $1,471
- Protected land
- 97%
- Seasonal units
- 22.5%
Down a third, back in four.
Because a third of the market is off the MLS, the most reliable long view is the county repeat-sales index, which compares homes to their own earlier sales. It shows the valley falling about 32% from its 2008 peak to a 2012 trough, then recovering the prior peak by 2016 — the fastest rebound of the six markets, four years ahead of Aspen — before running to a 2021 high. The federal series was discontinued after 2022.
Single-family average, the most current dollar figure the disclosed record supports.
All property types — the freshest per-foot read, least affected by which homes happen to trade.
Up 12% over 2024 to a record. Wyoming discloses no sale prices, but this series is built to include the off-MLS transfers — roughly a third of the market — that never reach the listing service.
Single-family closings on the MLS, about $849M in disclosed volume — still well below the 2021 peak.
A third of the market never shows a price.
Wyoming is one of a handful of states that does not require a sale price to be recorded. Deeds transfer without a stated consideration, so the highest end of the valley — the ranch and estate trades most likely to close privately — is systematically absent from the public record. Estimates put roughly a third of Teton County transactions off the MLS entirely.
That is why the median here comes from a transfer record built to include those off-market sales, not the MLS alone — it captures the roughly one-in-three trades the listing service never sees. The average, by contrast, is pulled well above the median by the ranch and estate trades at the very top, which is why the median is the better read of the middle of this market. The county repeat-sales index corroborates the direction, since it compares each home to its own prior sale.
A finished valley, a durable inflow.
Ninety-seven percent public land, no state income tax, and a disclosure regime that hides the top of the market. Teton County has about 23,300 residents and under 14,000 housing units, 22.5% of them seasonal. It imported $727 million of net AGI in tax year 2019-20 and was still importing $553 million in TY2021-22 — long after Miami and the Hamptons had rolled over. The demand here arrived early and stayed late.
Ninety-seven percent of Teton County is public or protected land. The valley cannot expand its buildable base, so demand meets a fixed supply.
Nearly a quarter of the county's roughly 14,000 housing units are held seasonally, tightening what actually trades in a market of about 23,300 residents.
Net adjusted-gross-income imported in tax year 2021-22 — down from a $727M peak, but still running years after other markets rolled over. The money arrived early and stayed late.
Wyoming levies no state income tax and no real estate transfer tax. For a relocating high earner, the carry math is as favorable as any market on our list.
Fifty years, in five moments.
- 1990-2000Compounding in the quiet
+21.9% in 1990 and +22.8% in 2000 — Teton County builds most of its fifty-year return before anyone outside Wyoming is watching. The long-run local record puts the 1994 average single-family sale price at about $478,000.
- 2008-2012Down a third, back in four
Peak 2008 at 222.2, trough 2012 at 151.2, -32.0%. Then the fastest recovery of the six: the prior peak is regained in 2016, four years ahead of Aspen and Miami. The transaction record shows the bottom clearly: 223 sales and $343 million of volume in 2009, rising to 319 and $509 million in 2010.
- 2014The first re-rating
+27.8% — the largest single-year gain in the Teton County series, and a full six years before the pandemic. Jackson Hole re-priced early.
- 2020-2021Peak volume
2021 records 847 sales and $2.97 billion. The FHFA index peaks in 2021 at 319.8 — and then stops: FRED discontinues the Teton County series after 2022 for insufficient transaction count. The market became too thin to index.
- 2022-2026The invisible market
Net AGI inflow peaks at $727 million in tax year 2019-20 and — uniquely among these six — is still running at $553 million two years later in TY2021-22, long after Miami and the Hamptons have rolled over. Volume rebuilds to 453 closings and $2.17 billion in 2025 at a $4.79 million average. In the first half of 2026 the median sets a record at $2.995 million — and 41% of transactions are off-market or non-disclosed. Any Jackson Hole number quoted without its universe stated is close to meaningless.
Sources & method
The Roebling Research Desk maintains this record from published market reports and public data — the Teton County FHFA repeat-sales index for the cycle, the disclosed MLS record for the current per-square-foot, average and volume figures, Census figures for the seasonal-housing and population data, and IRS migration data for the income-inflow context.
Teton County is treated as the valley market itself, which is why the county repeat-sales index is used here as the cycle layer rather than a broad regional proxy. Every figure is shown as published for its stated year; nothing is averaged across sources, interpolated or estimated. Because Wyoming discloses no sale prices, the single-family median is compiled from a transfer record that includes off-MLS sales, and the county repeat-sales index corroborates its direction. A parcel-level Roebling index for the valley remains in reconstruction and is not published here.
Buying or selling in Jackson Hole?
The public record only tells you what Wyoming lets it. A Compass Jackson Hole specialist fills in what the disclosure regime hides — the private trades, the sub-area reality, and the closing-cost and residency math. A 30-minute consultation gets you the framework and the right introduction.
The Roebling Team at Compass executes transactions directly in Manhattan. For Jackson Hole buyers and sellers, we collaborate with Compass agents in Jackson Hole via referral — clients work with the best on-the-ground representation while keeping the analytical framework consistent across markets. This calculator is an informational research tool, not solicitation of representation.
For trans-market clients (Manhattan + Jackson Hole portfolios) or to discuss your specific transaction, schedule a consultation. Where appropriate, we’ll introduce you to a vetted Compass agent in the local market.