The people leave, the capital stays.
The directory separates two geographies: a fixed set of barrier islands that cannot add land, and the Coastal Mainland. Each contains different property types. The headline is the Miami Beach & Barrier Islands single-family Q4 series; each of the 28 neighborhood rows identifies its own segment and report period, and the two geographies are never blended. The people leave, the capital stays, and on the islands the price keeps setting records.
- Island median · Q4 2025
- $3.65M
- Since 2014
- +236.4%
- Neighborhoods
- 28
- On record
- 2014–25
A barrier-island house at $3.65M, an all-time high.
The Miami Beach & Barrier Islands single-family median reached $3.65M in 2025, up 236.4% since the 2014 base year. This is the inelastic luxury universe, the one that matches our other five Index markets. The series is made of Q4 readings, not full-year medians.
Miami-Dade has had net domestic out-migration every year since 2010 in Census Bureau estimates, reaching −72,254 in 2025, a year in which total county population fell by 10,115. The island single-family median rose 22.0% in 2025 to a record. The two do not move in a fixed pattern: total population grew from 2022 through 2024, and the island median fell in 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2023 while out-migration continued.
Inelastic islands, elastic mainland.
Two geographies wearing one name. The published reports keep Miami Beach & Barrier Islands and Coastal Mainland apart, and so does The Roebling Index. Each geography holds both condominiums and houses; the barrier islands cannot add land.
A fixed set of barrier islands that cannot add land, tracked apart from the Coastal Mainland. Each geography holds both condominiums and houses, and each neighborhood row names its own segment.
Net adjusted-gross-income inflow to Miami-Dade jumped from $933M to $6.42B in a single tax year, 2020 to 2021, led by New York County at $3.02B (regional context).
Investment and asset-management firms opened Miami offices between 2020 and 2023.
Net domestic out-migration from Miami-Dade in 2025, the same year the barrier-island single-family price set a record.
Three moments that shaped the record.
- 2020-2021The AGI shock
Net adjusted-gross-income inflow to Miami-Dade rose 6.9x in twelve months, from $933M to $6.42B. New York County was the largest single origin, 2,519 returns carrying $3.02B, and 63 investment and asset-management firms opened Miami offices between 2020 and 2023.
- 2022The two universes decouple
The Miami Beach & Barrier Islands single-family series and the Coastal Mainland series diverged. The islands are a fixed set that cannot add land. The Index keeps the two geographies apart and names each row's property type.
- 2023-2025The money cooled, the island price did not
AGI inflow fell to $484M by tax year 2022-23 and net domestic migration hit -72,254 in 2025. The barrier-island single-family median still set a record at $3.65M. Total county population fell by 10,115 in 2025, after three years of growth.
Fisher Island, Bal Harbour, Coconut Grove.
Fisher Island and Bal Harbour sit on the inelastic barrier-island stock; Coconut Grove belongs to the mainland universe. The two universes do not move together, and reading them as one market misprices both.
Fisher Island
Condo · median price · 2014–2025 on record · The Roebling Research Desk
Bal Harbour
Condo · median price · 2014–2025 on record · The Roebling Research Desk
Coconut Grove
Condo · median price · 2014–2024 on record · The Roebling Research Desk
Two universes, kept apart.
The barrier islands and the mainland are separate markets that price on different logic. The Index carries them in two lists and never sums across them, because reading them as one number describes neither.
Miami Beach & Barrier Islands
| Neighborhood | Sale price | Change · base year | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fisher Island Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $5M’25 | — | 5 |
| Miami Beach & Barrier Islands· single source Single-family houses · Q4 2025 Reported as “Miami Beach Islands” | $3.4M’25 | ’16 +13.3% | 72 |
| Bal Harbour Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $2.13M’25 | 1y +32.8%’22 +25.0%’16 +147.8% | 22 |
| South Beach Islands· single source Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $1.5M’25 | 1y +66.7% | 13 |
| Key Biscayne Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $1.27M’25 | 1y +12.7%’22 +18.6%’16 +58.9% | 33 |
| South Of Fifth Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $1.27M’25 | 1y −15.2%’23 +6.0% | 40 |
| South Beach, Oceanfront· single source Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $1.1M’25 | 1y +40.5% | 21 |
| Bay Harbor Islands Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $800K’25 | 1y +31.1%’22 +53.1%’16 +207.7% | 25 |
| Sunny Isles Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $753K’25 | 1y −15.0%’22 +30.9%’16 +88.1% | 176 |
| Barrier Islands + Miami Beach· single source All property types · Q4 2025 Reported as “Miami Beach & Barrier Islands” | $745K’25 | 1y −3.2%’22 +46.1%’16 +88.6% | 749 |
| Mid-Beach Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $555K’25 | 1y +0.9%’22 −0.0%’16 +31.9% | 70 |
| Surfside Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $525K’25 | ’22 −54.4% | 10 |
| South Beach· single source Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $478K’25 | 1y +12.4%’22 +34.5%’16 +41.3% | 212 |
| North Bay· single source Condominiums · Q4 2025 Reported as “North Bay Village” | $435K’25 | 1y −1.1%’22 +20.0%’16 +74.0% | 22 |
| Miami Beach· single source Condominiums · Q1 2014 | $353K’14 | 1y −4.5% | 306 |
| North Beach Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $325K’25 | 1y −25.6%’22 −0.9%’16 +8.7% | 72 |
| South Beach, West Of Collins· single source Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $322K’25 | 1y −1.5% | 132 |
Coastal Mainland
| Neighborhood | Sale price | Change · base year | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinecrest· single source Single-family houses · Q1 2024 | $2.88M’24 | 1y +21.8%’22 +24.5%’16 +181.9% | 41 |
| Coconut Grove Condominiums · Q1 2024 | $1.44M’24 | — | 8 |
| Palmetto Bay· single source Single-family houses · Q1 2024 | $1.15M’24 | 1y +9.5%’22 +13.9%’16 +121.2% | 61 |
| Miami Shores· single source Single-family houses · Q4 2025 | $1.1M’25 | 1y −15.4% | 32 |
| South Miami· single source Single-family houses · Q1 2024 | $1.1M’24 | 1y −19.1%’22 +27.5%’16 +86.8% | 22 |
| Brickell Condominiums · Q1 2024 | $662K’24 | 1y −3.4%’22 +10.3%’16 +65.5% | 232 |
| Edgewater· single source Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $590K’25 | 1y −20.3% | 105 |
| Aventura Condominiums · Q1 2024 | $520K’24 | 1y +22.4%’22 +6.1%’16 +80.9% | 218 |
| Coral Gables Condominiums · Q4 2019 | $430K’19 | 1y +11.2%’16 +25.0% | 61 |
| Downtown Condominiums · Q1 2024 | $380K’24 | 1y −1.2%’22 +5.6%’16 +94.9% | 988 |
| Upper East Side· single source Condominiums · Q4 2025 | $330K’25 | — | 6 |
Each row names its property type and the report quarter it rests on. A condominium row and a single-family row are different markets, and a row’s year is the latest reading in its series, not necessarily the latest year. “Reported as” is the publisher’s own name for a series; the market-wide single-family median in the headline and the neighborhood lines are separate series, not restatements of each other. Where a figure rests on a single reporting source it is marked as such and is never presented as corroborated. Neighborhood counts are thin in places; read the direction, not the decimal.
Sources & method
The Roebling Research Desk maintains this record from published market reports and public data — the barrier-island and mainland single-family series for the price record, and Census and IRS figures for the migration and income context (which are county-level and labeled as such).
Compiled by The Roebling Research Desk from published market reports and public data. The two universes are never summed or blended: the barrier islands and the Coastal Mainland are separate markets and are carried apart. Percent changes carry their real base year wherever a series begins later than the label.
Buying or selling in Miami?
The record tells you which universe a neighborhood belongs to and where it has been; a Compass Miami specialist tells you what it means for your transaction. A 30-minute consultation gets you the framework — the building-level comps, the closing-cost and tax math, and the right introduction.
The Roebling Team at Compass is led by Corey Cohen, a New York licensed associate real estate broker. For a purchase or sale in Miami, we introduce you to a licensed Compass agent there by referral and handle the New York side of your move ourselves. This page and its calculators are research, not an offer of representation.
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