The people leave, the capital stays.
Miami runs on two separate universes: a fixed set of barrier islands where single-family stock cannot expand, and a deep, replaceable mainland condo market. We track 28 neighborhoods across both, and never blend them. The people leave, the capital stays, and on the islands the price keeps setting records.
- Island median, 2025
- $3.65M
- Since 2014
- +236.4%
- Neighborhoods
- 28
- On record
- 2014–25
A barrier-island house at $3.65M, an all-time high.
The Miami Beach & Barrier Islands single-family median reached $3.65M in 2025, up 236.4% since the 2014 base year. This is the inelastic luxury universe, the one that matches our other five Index markets.
Miami-Dade has lost domestic population every year since 2010, reaching net −72,254 in 2025, yet the island price rose 22.0% in the past year to a record. Population and price have run in opposite directions for fifteen years.
Inelastic islands, elastic mainland.
Two markets wearing one name. The condo stock is deep, replaceable and supply-elastic; the barrier-island single-family stock is not. When you separate them the cycles look nothing alike, which is why the published reports keep Miami Beach & Barrier Islands and Coastal Mainland apart — and why The Roebling Index should too.
A fixed set of barrier islands that cannot add land, priced apart from a deep and replaceable Coastal Mainland condo market. In 2022 the two stopped tracking each other.
Net adjusted-gross-income inflow to Miami-Dade jumped from $933M to $6.42B in a single tax year, 2020 to 2021, led by New York County at $3.02B (regional context).
Investment and asset-management firms opened Miami offices between 2020 and 2023.
Net domestic out-migration from Miami-Dade in 2025, the same year the barrier-island single-family price set a record.
Three moments that shaped the record.
- 2020-2021The AGI shock
Net adjusted-gross-income inflow to Miami-Dade rose 6.9x in twelve months, from $933M to $6.42B. New York County was the largest single origin, 2,519 returns carrying $3.02B, and 63 investment and asset-management firms opened Miami offices between 2020 and 2023.
- 2022The two universes decouple
The Miami Beach & Barrier Islands single-family series and the Coastal Mainland series stopped tracking each other. The island stock is inelastic, a fixed set of islands that cannot add land; the mainland condo stock is deep and replaceable. That divergence is the whole story, and the Index has kept the two apart ever since.
- 2023-2025The money cooled, the island price did not
AGI inflow fell to $484M by tax year 2022-23 and net domestic migration hit -72,254 in 2025. The barrier-island single-family median still set a record at $3.65M. Population and price run opposite.
Fisher Island, Bal Harbour, Coconut Grove.
Fisher Island and Bal Harbour sit on the inelastic barrier-island stock; Coconut Grove belongs to the mainland universe. The two universes do not move together, and reading them as one market misprices both.
Fisher Island
Condo · median price · 2014–2025 on record · The Roebling Research Desk
Bal Harbour
Condo · median price · 2014–2025 on record · The Roebling Research Desk
Coconut Grove
Condo · median price · 2014–2024 on record · The Roebling Research Desk
Two universes, kept apart.
The barrier islands and the mainland are separate markets that price on different logic. The Index carries them in two lists and never sums across them, because reading them as one number describes neither.
Miami Beach & Barrier Islands
| Neighborhood | Sale price | Change · base year | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fisher Island | $5M’25 | 1y −29.4%’22 −49.1%’16 −52.4% | 5 |
| Miami Beach & Barrier Islands· single source | $3.4M’25 | 1y −76.6%’22 −39.8%’16 +13.3% | 72 |
| Bal Harbour | $2.13M’25 | 1y +32.8%’22 +25.0%’16 +147.8% | 22 |
| South Beach Islands· single source | $1.5M’25 | 1y +66.7% | 13 |
| Key Biscayne | $1.27M’25 | 1y +12.7%’22 +18.6%’16 +58.9% | 33 |
| South Of Fifth | $1.27M’25 | 1y −15.2%’23 +6.0% | 40 |
| South Beach, Oceanfront· single source | $1.1M’25 | 1y +40.5% | 21 |
| Bay Harbor Islands | $800K’25 | 1y +31.1%’22 +53.1%’16 +207.7% | 25 |
| Sunny Isles | $753K’25 | 1y −15.0%’22 +30.9%’16 +88.1% | 176 |
| Barrier Islands + Miami Beach· single source | $745K’25 | 1y −3.2%’22 +46.1%’16 +88.6% | 749 |
| Mid-Beach | $555K’25 | 1y +0.9%’22 −0.0%’16 +31.9% | 70 |
| Surfside | $525K’25 | 1y −43.2%’22 −54.4%’16 0.0% | 10 |
| South Beach· single source | $478K’25 | 1y +12.4%’22 +34.5%’16 +41.3% | 212 |
| North Bay· single source | $435K’25 | 1y −1.1%’22 +20.0%’16 +74.0% | 22 |
| Miami Beach· single source | $353K’14 | 1y −4.5% | 306 |
| North Beach | $325K’25 | 1y −25.6%’22 −0.9%’16 +8.7% | 72 |
| South Beach, West Of Collins· single source | $322K’25 | 1y −1.5% | 132 |
Coastal Mainland
| Neighborhood | Sale price | Change · base year | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinecrest· single source | $2.88M’24 | 1y +21.8%’22 +24.5%’16 +181.9% | 41 |
| Coconut Grove | $1.44M’24 | 1y +4.5%’22 +19.8%’16 +171.8% | 8 |
| Palmetto Bay· single source | $1.15M’24 | 1y +9.5%’22 +13.9%’16 +121.2% | 61 |
| Miami Shores· single source | $1.1M’25 | 1y −15.4% | 32 |
| South Miami· single source | $1.1M’24 | 1y −19.1%’22 +27.5%’16 +86.8% | 22 |
| Brickell | $662K’24 | 1y −3.4%’22 +10.3%’16 +65.5% | 232 |
| Edgewater· single source | $590K’25 | 1y −20.3% | 105 |
| Aventura | $520K’24 | 1y +22.4%’22 +6.1%’16 +80.9% | 218 |
| Coral Gables | $430K’19 | 1y +11.2%’16 +25.0% | 61 |
| Downtown | $380K’24 | 1y −1.2%’22 +5.6%’16 +94.9% | 988 |
| Upper East Side· single source | $330K’25 | 1y −12.2% | 6 |
Where a figure rests on a single reporting source it is marked as such and is never presented as corroborated. Neighborhood counts are thin in places; read the direction, not the decimal.
Sources & method
The Roebling Research Desk maintains this record from published market reports and public data — the barrier-island and mainland single-family series for the price record, and Census and IRS figures for the migration and income context (which are county-level and labeled as such).
Every figure is shown as published for its stated year. Nothing is averaged, interpolated or estimated, and the two universes are never summed or blended: the barrier islands and the Coastal Mainland are separate markets and are carried apart. Percent changes carry their real base year wherever a series begins later than the label.
Buying or selling in Miami?
The record tells you which universe a neighborhood belongs to and where it has been; a Compass Miami specialist tells you what it means for your transaction. A 30-minute consultation gets you the framework — the building-level comps, the closing-cost and tax math, and the right introduction.
The Roebling Team at Compass executes transactions directly in Manhattan. For Miami buyers and sellers, we collaborate with Compass agents in Miami via referral — clients work with the best on-the-ground representation while keeping the analytical framework consistent across markets. This calculator is an informational research tool, not solicitation of representation.
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